【隊長熱線】Covered Call撈白銀的利與弊

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網友Lau Po-Ming問：Really thanks for American [Stock] Captain for my question. Another question which makes me confused so much these recent days is that someone advised me the [Silver] ETF(SLV) is having an extremely high counter-party risk and lots of difficulties on redemption of real metal silver. That is NOT SAFE! She also sent me a link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snsPFte22SI

Agree or not?

I myself want to start opening position of silver using SLV when its price is now at relatively low and also want to SHORT call at the same to get some option premium. Anything I have to pay attention to when I open the SHORT position is the US market?

I think I will get to open the Interactive Broker account shortly. Thank you.

My logic is the price of silver will be so difficult to rise in the near future. If it really rises, says 10%, I can just give my SLV shares to the option buyer, so that I can earn the option premium and the price difference. And if the SLV price goes down, I can just keep selling CALL option to get the premium over and over again.

你的問題謹覆如下：

很高興再次收到你的問題，證明閣下求知欲極強。希望你能夠儘快開通戶口，以實戰汲取寶貴經驗。

先把閣下問題分為兩個部分：首先是SLV這白銀ETF的「交易對手信用風險」 (counter-party risk)。

自問知識淺薄，無法分析SLV的交易對手信用風險，不過應對之法，是分散押注於多隻白銀ETF上。正如金融海嘯時，無法事前預測哪家投行倒閉，但若把資金分散在不同投行，除非整條華爾街陸沉，投行全滅，不然閣下絕不會一鋪清袋。

SLV以外的選擇，請參考：

http://etfdb.com/type/commodity/precious-metals/silver-etfs/

若閣下一如小弟，使用Interactive Brokers，每次美股交易，費用只是1美元；就算把資金分散三隻白銀ETFs，佣金亦僅增2美元。與其勉強分析SLV的交易對手信用風險，不如分散投資。

閣下問題的第二部分，是希望買入SLV正股，然後沽出極價外(10%價外)的認購期權(call)收取期權金，萬一看錯，SLV繼續下跌，就用收到的期權金，補貼股價下跌的損失(即所謂Covered Call策略)。

小弟淺見如下：白銀已大幅超賣，根據經驗，價格中線(一至三個月)的表現，要麼(i)繼續跌不停，土崩瓦解；要麼(ii)大超賣後，特大反彈，很少忽然牛皮不動。

如情景(i)出現，比方說SLV跌到$10(美元，下同)，而閣下的注碼又大，受創必深。 假設是情景(ii)，由於沽出了價外call，倉位的最大獲利空間已鎖定，就算買中絕世低位，SLV反彈幾成，升至$20，你也只能獲利10%。

沽出極價外call收取的期權金，聊勝於無，如SLV繼續怒跌，亦於事無補。

反而可考慮小注用一個月後到期的價外5%認購期權搏反彈。(利伸：小弟現無白銀相關持倉。)

解釋比較複雜，請諒。如再有問題，歡迎隨時發問。

吳瑞麟

http://investhof.blogspot.hk

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